Dismal year for snowpack but is that changing this weekend? Have the gods pitied us with this dire snowpack and sent us gifts?
Interesting storm inbound Sunday. Will need to update before then, if not, expect blustery conditions
Little shaker tonight under Penn Cove. Did you feel it? 3.3mag
Stunning conditions around this afternoon! Our next major weather event will be late Tuesday / Wednesday. Models are shifting run to run. So will need to re-assess tomorrow night. As of now, we may get lucky having puget sound as a layer of insulation compared to the mainland and OP. If you have plans to travel anywhere Tuesday or Wednesday keep an eye on the watches and warnings this week.
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Looking like we have a slight chance of warming up above freezing Sunday afternoon, then dipping back below freezing overnight Sunday… and finally by Monday afternoon the polar air *should* be gone. Polar air is notoriously slow to leave however so everything here is subject to change.
Storm I was tracking for changes is digging into Oregon today, and if you happen to be traveling I-5 between Portland and Eugene today may God have mercy on your soul. Will likely see some news headlines out of that one. Appears to be a freezing rain situation.
Thursday night PSCZ at 5pm, 31F and if we go to 15F this will be way more sketchy!
Friday 0900 forecast is looking COLD 🥶 best chance for flakes looking like tomorrow (Thursday) - won’t be much! An inch if we’re lucky?
Big winds up north today. This was from Libby Beach area, near Coupeville. Someone has a Davis station out there and shares their data. Haven’t seen a 70MPH gust on this station before!
Classic island microclimates in effect, was mostly calm on the southend all afternoon. Not the case north of coupeville
Friday we are looking at some chances for snow. Thursdays convergence zone can’t rule out some flakes either.
Dynamic weather so far for January!
Waiting on tonight’s model runs to finish, but the 12Z is painting a windy scenario for us Monday around midnight into Tuesday, followed by a powerful west surge (down the strait of Juan de Fuca) on Tuesday afternoon.
60MPH+ gusts to impact Coupeville north on that west wind event, and while we may be spared damaging winds on the south end, this is an unpredictable event for the island and our electricity runs across deception pass bridge and south to us. Don’t be surprised if we lose power Monday or (more likely) Tuesday at a seemingly calm time. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a “sneaker” wind storm on Tuesday. (EURO saying gusts to 20Mph for us on Tuesday)
Previously mentioned snow event looking likely after the Monday / Tuesday situation. We will look for that later in the week.
Fill up those tanks, dust off the old generator and pack a snack, things about to get real around here.
#wawx
This is a late breaking storm, and these events can often be under estimated by the models. Looks to enter into bombogenesis before making landfall on Vancouver Island, BC.
More to come…
Sat AM update: this setup looking less likely, and watching potential windstorm Mon/Tues
Original post: The GFS and the EURO models are both painting an absolutely textbook setup for lowland snow next week.. BUT will it hold?
Polar lobes are notoriously fickle. This thing shifts by 100miles in any direction and we won’t see polar air flowing offshore near Haida Gwaii, with the meeting of cold air and warm pacific air creating weather of its own, which is then wrapping back into western WA, dropping that glorious lowland snow.
This is a classic setup for sea level snow in puget sound, and the when the models are both agreeing on this happening mid week.. well it might just snow, by the end of the weekend we may have some certainty here… stay tuned!
#wawx
El Niño - tough to get a decent polar lobe for lowland snow, an armchair meteorologist can hope I guess…
Off and on rain all week! Watching a late week system for stronger winds. Cascades and Olympics finally getting a chance at decent snow this week. Winter making its late arrival.
December saw the warmest average temperatures for many areas of western WA. Some areas smashing the previous record.
January starting in a cooler trend - Happy New Year!
Couple posts back I mentioned the jetstream, and we’re now at the end of that phase - evidenced by the huge surf up and down the west coast.
So… What’s next? Do we have a chance at having an actual winter? Yes. The jetstream is now retracting back towards Asia. In this setup, we may see something like this 👆 where we get a “meandering” jetstream that forces cold air over the the intermountain west. This is a classic “snow at sea level” setup.
I’m watching the extended for a return of winter. Still too far out to nail down anything specific.
Was out in the garden yesterday and there’s bugs everywhere, elderflower budding… The garden seems to be waking up with the warm temps. But looking into my crystal ball 🔮 I’m not so sure winter is done with us just yet.
Decent storm for Christmas Day and Christmas night. The first of the next chapter for us in winter weather.. everything from my last post is knocking on the door. Storm train gets rolling next week. Will keep us posted, but Christmas is trending more rainy and windy than I expected so thought I’d put it out there -
👋 hi everyone! Haven’t been seeing much in terms of extreme weather for us, BUT - I’ve been eyeing the extended forecast (i.e.. after Christmas day) and it’s looking like the west coast will be going into a very interesting pattern after Christmas day.
At this point, long range models (GFS and Euro) are in agreement on a very powerful jetstream unloading on the west coast for many days.
What does this mean for us?
Increased chances of powerful storms, including windstorms.
Slightly above average temperatures (as in we’re not likely to get snow/frost at sea level during these patterns)
Slightly higher snow levels for the cascades (but still snowing at higher elevations)
Chances of windstorms.
Chances of windstorms.
Chances of windstorms.
Still too far out to glean any type of accurate forecasts, just expect to be on our toes toward the end of December.
Someone is going to get powerful storms between BC and Baja, where exactly is tbd
Stay tuned…