Posts and weather modeling discussions specific to South Whidbey.
Main event looking sometime between 6p and 9p.
Will try to get a good look and maybe update live tonight.
These sun breaks we are getting now are only setting the conditions for more instability later.
🍿 🍿 🍿
Today’s unseasonably warm temps will rollover into tomorrow but combine with a Pacific low pressure system spinning off the coast, this results in peak atmospheric instability basically looking like something you’d normally see in the Midwest but making a pass from south to north over puget sound.
Tomorrow is a big batch of uncertainty and everything is on the table at this point. Main event looking to kick off around 5pm continuing into the night.
We’re talking hail. We’re talking lightning. We’re talking torrential downpours. We’re talking big wind gusts from anywhere. We’re talking waterspouts. And yes this is the first time I’ve ever mentioned this — we’re talking tornados??!
What in the what is going on here people.
We got ourselves a freak show of a weather day tomorrow.
Prepare for anything - it’s about to get weird.
Sunday / Monday we are in the donut hole that is the Olympic mountain rain shadow.
Precip amounts in the high country looking massive on this AR. Snow levels to 8000 feet. Tons of avalanche potential everywhere so heads up if you’re in the mountains.
Meanwhile Tuesday and Wednesday looking freakishly warm. I’m already plotting how to get out of work 😆
Wednesday rain returns but it’s looking warm still!
It woke me up — Little shake up in the San Juan Islands to get the day started.
#earthquake #pugetsound #usgs
Powerful bent back occlusion on the coast with a deep 980mb low coming for us.
South winds to 40 sustained and 64mph gusts?? Hoping this changes on the European model because this has outages and tree damage written all over it.
Fill those tanks, dust off the generator folks.. it’s go time.
#windstorm #wawx #wawind
Latest models show the cold, dry air currently parked over the area steering a powerful and warm pacific system down toward the or/ca border.
Models previously had this low closer to the Columbia River, which would be a snowy solution for puget sound.
At one point the low was streaming straight down to the Bay Area, but as we get closer, models have trended north a bit.
In my last post I also mentioned this being a Wednesday storm, but all models agree this is due for a later arrival as a Thurs/Friday event.
Tonight will likely be the deciding factor on the model runs as to whether we see some wrap around snow.
For now, we’re basically on the border of snow / no-snow as seen in the model shown here.
Note this system will likely make some headlines, particularly for Oregon and Willamette Valley with chances of a freezing rain event increasing down south.
Storms are stacking out the back on the pacific but the cold air needed for lowland snow will be swept out of the area.
Looks like we’ll be shifting back into a warmer but windier and rainier period after this weekend.
Will try and get the Friday system dialed with one last post on it.
🤙🏽🤙🏽🤙🏽🤙🏽🤙🏽🤙🏽🤙🏽🤙🏽
We may just be shadowed completely.
Temps remain cold into next week.
A Wednesday system has potential to be a snow producer at lower elevations but remains to be confirmed. This weekend should yield some decent forecasts on this Wednesday setup.
Temps looking very chilly and very dry mon- wed and getting a warm moist system into that setup can be dynamic and can produce.
The setup, however, has to be perfect and currently the storm has trajectory for the mouth of the columbia, but things can shift north a bit!
Have a good weekend! And I’ll try to post what I’m seeing if this Wednesday system gets traction.
Hit and miss snow today with small convective cells moving over the region — this one came in just in time for the commute this morning (Monday).
More chances like this today but a more likely shot of snow Wednesday night.
Stay tuned!!
Temps very cold this week for you farm folk, I probably don’t need to tell you that. Might be in hard freeze territory depending on whether or not we get a clear night.
I think we’ll be ok 🤞 on the power situation. 50mph down the strait is pretty standard but heads up nonetheless.
My hot take is snow expectations are under-doing it. The arctic lobe is trending in our direction (if you like snow).
After the westerly surge of wind tonight we go under the PSCZ tomorrow (Sat and sun) so with ongoing cold air convection with polar air aloft would not be surprised to see the first flakes of the winter with this setup!
Snow chances also increasing into next week too!
❄️ 🌬️ ❄️ ❄️ ❄️
Did you notice a change in the weather today?
A frontal system will bring lowland rain and heavier mountain snow tonight through Friday night.
Snow levels just below the passes on this one. Meaning if you’re touring into or over the mountains be sure to check with wsdot!
An upper low sliding southwards across British Columbia will usher in a colder pattern along with the potential for lowland snow Saturday into early next week.
Predicting pnw is really tricky. But we are looking increasingly likely to have some classic conditions to get at least a couple inches on the south end and possibly more going into the workweek.
PSCZ is going to be in charge of this at least during the weekend. Need to check on Frasier River outflow winds.. might be a snow loading event over on the PT - PA side of the strait with the outflow winds.
Will be a series of updates on this as we get into the weekend! ❄️
Are we skiing castle park in 2025 remains TBD… 😆
That monday gloom hits different.
Facing a foggy forest walk at 38F, having to borrow from the internal Yule log this morning to pull it all together…
Our highly active period of weather is well behind us as conditions have become noticeably tranquil.
Those that read regularly know what winter high pressure means. It’s often a recipe for foggy mornings with a hopeful eye looking for that sunny, beautiful afternoon and sunset.
Sometimes the marine layer has other plans and we stay in the cold drip, admittedly one of my least favorite weather patterns of the maritime northwest.
Zooming all the way out, La Niña has established itself in the equatorial regions and I’m currently waiting for that powerful pacific jet to slow down and retract back toward Japan. This is the recipe we need for pnw snow.
The extended is hinting at it, but it’s way too far to know, and I’m not seeing the setup we need for snow chances yet. Crystal ball 🔮 is thinking February but we’re getting into woo woo at that point.
In the meantime, plan on searching out the afternoon sun, and breaks in the fog and marine layer. The moments are there but they’re fleeting at best, so soak it up when it comes and try and get in the sun if possible!!
Just absolutely loving the doses of afternoon sun and calm wind lately - conditions making for nice sunny beach walks.
I went down to the t-shirt the other day probably for the first time in months! Friday we see a run of the mill system, nothing wild, and then slightly warmer into next week. Not too bad!
Some exciting glimpses on the long range, I know the island dooms on snowfall as it can be disruptive - but some models leaning toward some artic air trying to make it’s way east over the cascades.
Snow lovers — I know you’re out there… second half of the month we may have our chance! Will update on anything exciting, but for now I’m enjoying the calm — and sun!
Enjoy it while it’s here.
We’ve been locked into a similar pattern for about 3 weeks, with the North Pacific dishing up an extended jetstream and steady stream of rain into the west coast.
When this pattern first kicked off back in Nov, the pacific storm machine went into beast mode. Hawaii saw some of the largest waves ever surfed, 800,000 PSE customers lost power for multiple days, storms and surf caused coastal carnage in Northern CA, and here on south whidbey we basically hid behind Mt Olympus avoiding the worst of it.
Generally we’ve stayed pretty lucky 🍀 - We did have a couple impactful power outages, one involving the entire island… but for the most part, we made it through tucked into our blustery little zone in the lee of worst of it.
The extended forecast seems to continue the storm train, but the train isn’t really a train anymore — with the jet retracting back toward Hawaii while some ridging attempts to build over coastal WA.
Tuesday looking dry - probably a great day to get out and enjoy the island.
Tuesday night we get a weakened storm attempting to break the ridge, likely not amounting to much precip, if any.
Friday the North Pacific attempts it’s last jab (for now) at the west coast. We may see a proper rain event for us, and some blustery south winds. But for now this system is not looking impactful for us, however the low’s position and where it makes landfall is still being debated amongst the weather nerds.
👀 Extended Outlook 👀
La Nina down at the equator is currently fully entrenched.
As Michael Synder (Pacific Northwest Weather Watch) points out on his recent YouTube streams, La Nina’s effects aren’t typically felt for us locally until late January, February and March.
So we may have a chance at some true winter weather coming up.
As this pattern of Pacific storms seems to be on the way out, I’ll be looking and waiting for that perfect polar lobe setup that we need to get that snow down at sea level! ❄️❄️