In my last post I mentioned “waffling” and this is exactly what I mean… Posted are the different European model runs on this weekend's storm.
In my last post I mentioned “waffling” and this is exactly what I mean… Posted are the different European model runs on this weekend’s storm. Slide 1: Tuesday’s ECMWF run. This is what I was seeing when I made my last post sending a bit of a heads up to the south-facing folks..
In this situation, Whidbey would be looking at possibly 60MPH gusts during one of the highest tides of the year. Impactful for sure.
Slide 2: Wednesday’s ECMWF run. Wednesday’s run takes the center of the low into the northern tip of Vancouver island.
A much less risky situation for us.
This would be a blustery day, probably relatively low impact, with winds gusting to around 40MPH.
Slide 3: Today’s latest ECMWF (12 noon Thurs). Today we see some slight tracking to the south, putting the low right into about Tofino, still not the Tuesday situation, but we’re bumping up into higher wind territory today… basically just at the limit of what our local trees and power grid can handle without issues.
Timing: Friday night into early Saturday morning.
Wind looks to wrap up around Saturday evening. We’ll still need to watch the next few model runs, if this continues trending south in terms of the low making landfall, it will be the difference between 40MPH and 60MPH situation What’s the difference?
60MPH winds exert roughly 2.25 times more force than 40MPH winds!
Put on your math cap and ponder that one for a second. Things aren’t 1:1 when it comes to wind speeds! We’re walking a fine line here… #wawx #southwhidbeywx