Some wind drama possible today… HRRR saying greenbank north for 50+ — we are under another AR event today (much smaller compared to the last one) winds look blustery. Sunday winds are calmer and temps warmer. Possible PSCZ setting up Sunday for the south end. Expect rain and breezy conditions today (Saturday).
#wawx
we got hosed! the pineapple express is almost finished with us… full recap and a look into the extended to follow in next post :)
#wawx #goes18
Like I mentioned in my last post… the AR event for tomorrow and Tuesday is impressive!
#wawx #atmosphericriver
Watches and warnings being issued left and right from the officials over the next few days, and the satellite doesn’t lie..
Mid-level water vapor loop showing the beginning of a classic “Kona Low” north of the Hawaiian islands ready to merge into an impressive jet aimed directly at the northwest. (That’s the system behind the galaxy shaped storm on the slides – this will become our Monday / Tues storm)
Comma-shaped storm ahead of that one arrives tomorrow for another decent slug of moisture Sunday.
Atmospheric River event for Monday/Tuesday looking downright impressive for rain totals around western WA.
Not much for rivers or mountains here on the island, but either side of us the situation will be dramatic with snow levels moving from 2,500ft to over 10,000ft for the big event in both the Cascades and the Olympics.
Possible we have minor issues with the high tide Tuesday if the bay is swelling from runoff - happened last year in the maxwelton and columbia beach areas, among others. But that was during “king tide” so maybe the 9.5ft rather than 10.5ft will spare us trouble.
No wind advisories with these, and we’ll be rain shadowed as usual, but the PWAT levels are likely render our rain shadow mostly useless.
Rain: 3 - 6” expected in the lowlands 10 - 15” expected in the Olympics and Cascasdes
#wawx #warain #waflood
Another couple nights of fog Tues into Thursday morning… possibly freezing fog and rime - followed by sunshine and cooler temps - please be careful driving in the early AM. Ice has been an issue past couple days and will be more so tomorrow and Wednesday mornings. Slow is pro, especially in those shady spots off the highway!
Thursday we break out of the current pattern and see a decaying front, followed by a series of potent Pacific storms.
Generally we’ll be rain-shadowed here on the Southend up to Coupeville (compared to elsewhere in western WA) – still we’re looking at a 10-day total of about 3 inches of rain, all of that falling after Thursday.
Will update on winds.
Looking like a classic “Pineapple Express” setting up for the end of the extended, I’ll revise this forecast over the coming days as this atmospheric river takes shape.
Hopefully we can start a proper winter season in the cascades, I know it’s been low tide up there in regards to snow.
That should be changing, but the AR could also complicate things with higher snow levels. To be determined…
#wawx
Both the Euro and the GFS are sending that Monday beast storm into Alaska on tonight’s extended runs.
Like I’ve mentioned in my last few posts, all of this can change! (Last night it shifted from Astoria OR to Seattle — didn’t post because I’m already freaking people out). Long range predictions in November are NOT reliable.
Long range models still bullish on a big storm happening 11/20 — where it will happen is still a big unknown and will be determined later this week.
*read my last few posts for all the details here
Steady rain tonight with a frontal passage overnight. Monday we start off showery and move into a week of mostly dry weather and seasonal temps.
Ridging looks to set in for the later half of the workweek keeping things calm and dry.
Previously mentioned windstorm on the extended is still showing up. Tonight the Euro has it driving into Astoria, OR and impacting Portland.
Timing is still looking like Monday Nov 20th, but if you check my last post, models were throwing this beast into Vancouver Island.
Since it’s so far out in the extended, and so much can change, we’re likely to see the location of this storm move anywhere from SE Alaska to northern CA on any given run.
Models remaining bullish on wind speeds, with tonight’s run pushing 110mph gusts into the Oregon coast.
Will update on that storm this week. Fun to watch that one. Wherever it ends up, it should be a memorable experience to say the least.
#wawx
This is purely anecdotal at this point, but the long range models at the 240hr mark (Nov 22nd) are spitting out a once-in-a-lifetime windstorm for pnw.
The models at this far out are notoriously inaccurate so please don’t take this as a warning or forecast. Something to watch nonetheless…
This would be a traditional “blowdown” on a level which hasn’t been seen since 1880.
Will likely be my last post on this wind event, wind speeds holding steady estimated about 55MPh overnight, will be building from this afternoon on. Early morning actually looking fairly calm so the bulk of this fun will be had when everyone’s asleep. I may have to go climb a tree in my pajamas. 50/50 chance of power outage during breakfast tomorrow.
Thursday AM update…
Clouds associated with the next Pacific system currently streaming overhead. Rain from this system begins tonight. This isn’t the system I’m concerned about, but expect some gusty winds with it too.
Very early Saturday we see the next potent system, wind speeds have trended UP since my last post about this storm.
Consider this your second “heads up” to fill those propane tanks, gas tank in the car, check the generator, tune up the chainsaw, and grab an extra extension cord because we might be dealing with a very potent wind event early Saturday morning (early as in 2AM - 10AM).
This first wind event of the season can be challenging for our trees. Wind speeds are expected to be stronger closer to Bellingham, Anacortes, and Friday Harbor.
As we all know, our electricity flows over Deception Pass and down towards us on the south end. We’re the end of the line on an above-ground grid. Any issue north on this island can leave us without electricity.
Tell a friend, like, share, comment, subscribe, and check on any family or neighbors that may need a bit of extra help Saturday morning :)
We’ve got back to back storms following this, nothing with wind speeds on the level expected Saturday, but Atmospheric Rivers are looking likely into next week.
Saturday morning looking concerning for gusty south wind (as of Wed PM) - we will need to revisit this daily to watch the models for changes. It can go up. It can go down. But sending a heads up now that Saturday morning is on my watch list - Bellingham and Friday Harbor expected to touch 60MPH 🌬️ 🌬️ 🌬️ let’s see where this is heading.. will update
#wawx #wawind
Tracking lightning tonight — think we’ll get lucky here?
🌩️ ⚡️🌩️
#wawx
A potent system tonight headed directly for Haida Gwaii. A 970mb low is by all means a very powerful storm, typical for November but if one of these decides to drop a bit south it would make for an interesting weekend..
November keeping us on our toes here.
Last slide illustrates our rain shadow perfectly. Expect gusts to 50MPh during this event Saturday. Models have been underdoing the winds during the last few storms.
#wawx
